YSP UHF (HP) India
Title: Climate change impacts on rainfall distribution over north-west India
Dr Mohan Singh Jangra has more than 25 years of experience and expertise in agricultural meteorology, weather forecasting, crop weather relation and crop ecological zoning. He developed crop weather relation models model for different crops based on various climatic and phenological data which are helping in yield forecasting of that crop. He also has a long experience of crop weather forecasting and issuing of real time agromet advisories for agriculture, horticulture, forestry and livestock management in the middle region of north western Indian Himalayas. The economic impact assessment of the agromet advisory services showed farming and other end user stakeholders are getting an increased benefits 5-10% from the services
The uncertainty & variability in rainfall amount and distribution are increasing over northwest Indian due to global warming and the climate change. This variability is affecting the agricultural production specially the fruit crops grown under rainfed conditions. The critical information on rainfall rends and its zoning would be selection tools of crop and cultivars in the study area. Rainfall data of twenty-two meteorological stations (35 years) co-located in the study area. The rainfall data was computed and analysed for different stations, regions and trends were evaluated using regression trend analysis. The map of north-west India was digitized and different rainfall zones were delineated using GIS software. Normal annual rainfall was found more than one thousand millimetres at eight stations and ranged between 500-900 mm at eleven stations and between 200 to 500 mm for remaining three stations. The rainfall variability was found less than fifty per cent for all the stations. The trend was decreasing at nine stations but increasing at thirteen stations. The increasing trend in annual rainfall at most of the stations might be due to regional warming which resulted in high convection currents. Increase in water vapors in atmosphere may be due to flood irrigation facilities in plains cause more local rains. The isohyets of higher rainfall were spreading outwards for annual and EGS season but it was contracting towards north during the DS season of the study area. The annual and EGS seasonal rainfall showed an increasing trend in eastern part, decreasing trend in western part and almost no change in central part of the study area. No shift in the month of peak rainfall was observed in hills and whole of the northwest India but, a shift from July to August was observed in plains during present time scale compared to the previous time scale. Steepness in monthly rainfall was decreasing and hence, the distribution among the months toward a smoothing trend.